Very few votes were cast at one booth this time

Why

The leader is doing something people do constantly — taking a number and attaching the meaning that suits him. And his reading is not impossible; contented people sometimes do stay home. But low turnout is a silence, and a silence can carry almost any meaning. It could equally mean disgust with every candidate, a belief that voting changes nothing, heavy rain that day, names missing from the rolls, migration for work, or fear of going to the booth. Each of those produces exactly the same low number. Test: ask people why they did not vote, compare with the same booth in earlier years, and check whether turnout fell where the rolls were revised. Notice which explanation the leader picked and how well it serves him — that itself is a reason to be careful. The conclusion cannot be drawn: when one observation fits many explanations, choosing your favourite is not reasoning, it is preference.